Week 15: Fantasy Playoff Chaos
From a non-fantasy perspective, the narrative of the 2021 NFL season has been “chaos”. The common themes include “No good teams”, “Cordarrelle Patterson for MVP”, and the rubbish fire that is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Those things tend to carry into the fantasy realm but for at least most of the season, things were stable enough.
Enter Week 15, the first* week of fantasy playoffs.
*Yes, some people start in Week 14 but the most common start is Week 15.
If you thought the Jaguars were a hot mess, then oh baby do I have some news for you… Week 15 has been nothing short of abysmal. Earlier this season was the “Bye-pocalypse” which now looks like a cake walk. If you need a one sentence summary of this week: Tom Brady was outscored by Taysom Hill in a match up where neither QB score more than 10 points. 10! 1–0. In the fantasy playoffs! YIKES.
With only two games remaining (on a Tuesday!), let’s break down the Winners and Losers of Week 15. A quick note: Player Trend is how a player has looked over the previous three weeks compared to their season average for PPR points. If they are outperforming their season average by 3+ points, it’s considered a positive trend. If they are falling short by 3+ points, it’s a negative trend. Anything in the middle is neutral.
Running Backs
Winners:
- The fantasy community agreed that the Dolphins backfield would have a field day against the Jets. However, the assumed beneficiary, Myles Gaskin, was not the man who ran wild. Instead, Duke Johnson absolutely tore up the Jets, exceeding projections by 20+ points. He’s currently the top running back in fantasy this week.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. totaled 19.9 points and bounced back in a major way after putting up only 5.6 in his first start as the replacement for Eli Mitchell. Mitchell cleared concussion protocol but the 49ers are on a short week, meaning Wilson may be in-line for more carries on Thursday.
- The 2021 fantasy GOAT, Jonathan Taylor, iced the game with a 67 yard touchdown. Taylor earned 12.7 of his 23 fantasy points on his final run of the day, saving a number of fantasy teams.
Losers:
- Rough weeks for Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, and Cordarrelle Patterson. All three totaled 18 yards each rushing, the lowest across all running backs in Week 15. Although Harris had been trending down in recent weeks, Patterson and Kamara and been fairly neutral.
- Positively trending players did not fare well this week. Notables names rostered include Devonta Freeman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and James Conner. None cracked 10 points this week.
Wide Receivers
Winners:
- The #FreeGabeDave movement took a leap this weekend with Davis notching 25.5 PPR points. With Emmanuel Sanders out, Davis added to his already increased workload. He’s seen a combined 15 targets over the previous two weeks and should continue to benefit in a pass-first Bills offense.
- Tyler Boyd felt a bit lost in the Bengals receiving corp after they added Ja’Marr Chase during the draft. Boyd broke through in a big way this week, more than doubling his projection and eclipsing 20 PPR points.
- Russell Gage has been sneaky good for the Falcons. Without Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan has turned to Gage more than any other receiver. Gage has now seen double-digit targets in two of his last three games. If he’s not rostered in your league, pick him up. The Falcons play Detroit next week.
Losers:
- Bengals wide-outs not named “Boyd” had an abysmal day. Ja’Marr Chase score all of 1.3(!!!) points, with Tee Higgins putting up 4.3 points. Since Week 7, Chase has only eclipsed 15 points once.
- If you have the initials “JJ”, it was not your week. Julio Jones and Jerry Jeudy put up a combined ZERO points. Jones left early on with a hamstring injury while Jeudy watched his starting QB get knocked out of the game. Two guys who once felt reliable have faded hard and likely cost some fantasy managers their seasons.
- Breakout fantasy stars Hunter Renfrow and Cordarrelle Patterson both had tough weeks. Patterson was mentioned in the RB section but Renfrow was able to notch only 6.3 PPR points despite facing a Browns team missing a good portion of it’s coaching staff.
Tight Ends
Winners:
- Travis Kelce is BACK. Kansas City’s biggest weapon totaled more yards (191) than his previous three weeks combined (128) and scored for the first time since Week 9. Unfortunately, those vibes may have worn off quick as Kelce is now in the Health & Safety Protocols due to COVID-19.
- Mark Andrews might be the top-drafted tight end in 2022. Despite playing with backup QB Tyler Huntley, Andrews put up 35.6 points, nearly doubling his projection. Only Kelce scored more.
- Continuing to fill in for Darren Waller, Foster Moreau scored 13.5 points in a solid performance against the Browns. While this wasn’t a monster game by any means, it may have been enough to win you a playoff match-up in a week where most other players tanked.
Losers:
- Really, it was most tight ends this week. Gronk was the notable name to really struggle versus his projection, although he was edged out slightly by Tyler Conklin of the Vikings.
Quarterbacks
Winners:
- The guys who helped at QB were few and far between this week. If you had said Tyler Huntley would be the leading fantasy QB of any week this season, no one would have believed you.
- Bad quarterbacks who scored decent fantasy points make up a third of the names above. Jared Goff and Cam Newton aren’t exactly elite in real football but both had solid weeks in fake football.
Losers:
- The Bucs-Saints game was hard to watch from every fantasy aspect. In what may have been one of the worst performances versus expectation at quarterback, Taysom Hill and Tom Brady totaled 14.22 points. That total is well below the projection for either individually.
- The idea of even starting Mike Glennon is painful enough but NEGATIVE points?! Sheesh. An empty roster spot would have been better.
There are still two games left to played so there’s a chance the fantasy week isn’t a complete bust. There have been a lot of bad performances in 2021 but as a whole, this week is arguably the worst. This week’s Projection Prince award goes to Duke Johnson, who as of now, leads all players in points over projection. Johnson totaled 25.7 points, notching 22.2 points over projection.
