When Wide Receiver Breakouts Matter & When They Don’t
How do you know when a wide receiver will continue having success after a breakout season?
Every season, fantasy football has players who fall into later rounds that end up becoming league winners. The easiest example coming off 2021 is Cooper Kupp, who averaged 11.8 PPR points more in 2021 than he did in 2020. During the draft process, Kupp was often viewed as a toss-up with Rams co-star Robert Woods as to who should get drafted first. The answer quickly became Kupp, with Woods eventually suffering a season-ending ACL injury.
Looking ahead to the 2022 season, the obvious question is whether Kupp will maintain that production? And similarly, of the other breakout receivers, who is worth betting on vs passing on this fall?
Between 2009 and 2021, there were 88 seasons by a wide receiver that were “breakout” years. Breakout seasons were determined by a player improving their fantasy PPR season average by at least 25% from the previous season and averaging at least 9 points throughout the season. Additionally, the player needed to play in at least 10 games to be considered.
So, how did all of these WRs fare in the season following a breakout year? Well…
The short answer — not great. A majority of receivers saw some regression, with a handful performing more than 5 points worse, on average. While some may have still been viable starters, their increased draft stock likely hurt the overall roster based on average draft position (ADP).
When we look at the same data by a percentage of the players average, the story gets worse. Most receivers who improved remained under the 25% improvement mark, and only 20 of the 67 players who regressed were within 25% of their previous season average. The TL;DR version… don’t hedge your bets players will maintain that momentum in the following season.
Another way to consider the data is grouping season into categories of the following:
- Improved:10% or more gain on previous season average.
- Maintained: Between -5% and +10% change versus previous season.
- Moderate Regression: Between 5–15% decline in season average versus previous season.
- Major Regression: More than 15% reduction versus previous season average.
Less than half of the time, wide receivers were able to improve or maintain performance, often falling well short of their breakout season performance.
How did this play out in 2021?
Only 2 of 17 breakout candidates from 2020 saw additional improvement in 2021. And while some of the names such as Nelson Agholor and Tim Patrick were likely later draft picks, those like Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams, and Stefon Diggs certainly were not.
Looking ahead to 2022, who does that leave coming off a breakout season?
There are eights players who are coming off a breakout season in 2021. Let’s argue for/against each one.
- Cordarrelle Patterson
Pros: Only true WR in Atlanta. Can be rostered as a WR/RB in most leagues. True positional value was unlocked in 2021.
Cons: His QB is Marcus Mariota. No other WRs to draw coverage off of him. His only true strong season in history. - Mike Williams
Pros: Herbert is only getting better. Finally able to sustain health for a full season. Second year in Staley offense.
Cons: Chargers need more offensive line help to buy Herbert time. Outlier season for Williams, health is always a concern. - Cooper Kupp
Pros: Stafford is back. Allen Robinson will draw some coverage away. Rams bring back loaded offense.
Cons: His season was all-time historic. Almost certainly will regress to some degree. - Ced Wilson
Pros: Could see more dynamic usage in McDaniel offense.
Cons: Joins loaded Miami offense with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Worse QB play from Tua versus Dak. - Hunter Renfrow
Pros: Established himself as a do-it-all target for Carr. Could see less coverage with Waller and Devante Adams around him.
Cons: Will lose targets with Adams joining LV. - Deebo Samuel
Pros: Developed into a RB/WR hybrid who can play essentially every position on the offense.
Cons: QB play is up in the air with neither Jimmy G or Trey Lance as the established starter yet. - Michael Pittman
Pros: Matt Ryan is throwing him the ball instead of Carson Wentz.
Cons: Colts need another WR to help draw some pressure off of Pittman. - Darnell Mooney
Pros: New offensive coordinator in Chicago. Fields should be better in Year 2. Allen Robinson is gone.
Cons: No Allen Robinson means more coverage on Mooney.
Overall, it’s hard to know how many players will be able to maintain their performanc in 2022 but historically, it’s roughly 1 in every 4 WRs who are coming off a breakout season. Given that, the two who feel the most likely to maintain from the above eight are Deebo and Williams. Some might argue Kupp but statistically, it’s almost certain he regresses. He’s still going to be great but given his season was literally an all-time great, regression will happen.
Deebo’s development into a hybrid role will help mitigate the potential QB dillema in San Francisco, while Williams will continue to benefit from a Herbert-led offense in Los Angeles.
Who the breakout receivers in 2022 will be is a topic for another day.
Data provided by the nflFastR library.
